Happy NHL trade deadline week!
At this stage, it’s more about when and who the Atlantic-leading Maple Leafs will add to their roster rather than if they will, and we’ll be ready to break down all the moves and their impact once they happen.
For now, let’s dive into an extended edition of Leafs Notebook.
Notes
– The Leafs’ defense has contributed seven goals over the last seven games, bumping them slightly up the rankings to 25th overall. Middle-tier defenses have generally tallied four to six more goals than Toronto. Before this recent surge, we discussed how the team was starting to activate its defense more in the offensive zone to generate chances.
Their goal against Pittsburgh showcased this well. Conor Timmins rotated high, while the right defenseman shifted left to create space. When Timmins received the pass, he had plenty of time to make a play and score.
Similarly, Morgan Rielly’s goal against Boston came from an umbrella setup. Matthew Knies was positioned along the half-wall, Oliver Ekman-Larsson was up top, and Rielly pushed in from the far side to receive the pass and convert.
Interestingly, none of these recent defensive goals have come off the rush. How this trend carries into the playoffs remains to be seen, as one of Toronto’s recurring postseason struggles has been generating offense from the point beyond Rielly.
The Leafs’ depth scoring has surged since the 4 Nations break:
- Pontus Holmberg has six points in five games.
- Nick Robertson has five points in five games.
- Max Domi has four points in five games.
- David Kämpf and Steven Lorentz each have two points.
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe have three points in three games, while Chris Tanev also had three in three before his injury.
– Meanwhile, the top stars continue to produce: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly each have six points, John Tavares has five, and Mitch Marner has four. While the core players remain consistent, secondary scoring makes the Leafs especially difficult to beat when it’s clicking.
– Morgan Rielly has been in top form, carrying momentum from a strong road trip before the 4 Nations tournament and continuing his production afterward. He has 10 points in his last nine games and logged his highest average ice time per game in February at 22:11. Rielly looks increasingly comfortable generating offense within the team’s in-zone system rather than relying on rush plays.
Pontus Holmberg’s strong performance higher in the lineup benefits the team overall, as it allows Bobby McMann to contribute effectively on the third line. Holmberg’s forechecking ability alongside skilled players has been discussed before—his speed helps disrupt breakouts, and his sturdy, stocky frame makes him difficult to knock off the puck. Even Brad Marchand thought he had a big hit lined up on him in Boston but ended up bouncing off.
One emerging strength in Holmberg’s game is his passing. He set up Timmins with a great backside pass before a goal, created chances for Tavares from behind the net against Boston, did the same for Nylander versus Carolina, and also found Nylander far-side against Chicago. His playmaking helps offset his shooting struggles—by setting up teammates and driving the net, he remains a scoring threat.
That net-front presence was key in his tying goal against Boston, where he capitalized after a strong play by Robertson to beat Nikita Zadorov. It was also a great coaching decision to send out a fresh line when the top players were exhausted—Marner even admitted he was “breathing out of his eyeballs” and barely registered who scored. Under the previous coaching staff, star players were often left on the ice despite being completely spent, signaling a lack of trust in the depth of the roster.
It’s a huge confidence boost for the coach to trust them in a crucial moment on the road, against a fierce division rival, and have them deliver with a key goal. The moment Holmberg and Robertson shared after the goal said it all. It’s a small but significant thing that adds up over an 82-game season.
Against the Rangers, Auston Matthews lost an offensive-zone faceoff, didn’t track Mika Zibanejad well down the ice, and Zibanejad capitalized with a goal. Against the Penguins, Matthews was beaten by Rickard Rakell for a goal just 10 seconds into the period. He set up the game-winner against the Rangers and scored against the Penguins, and the team won both games, but the expectations are extremely high for him as the highest-paid player in the league. It’s felt like his strong play has been inconsistent. I can’t remember the last time he truly took over a game. There’s another level to his game, and if he reaches it, the Leafs at the top of the Atlantic Division could have an even higher ceiling.
I didn’t realize until Nick Ashbourne pointed it out last week that Simon Benoit’s hit count is significantly down this season. If it felt like he’s been less physical, it’s because he has been. Last season, he had 246 hits in 64 games, averaging 13.38 hits per 60 minutes. This season, he’s recorded 152 hits in 56 games, or 9.89 hits per 60 minutes. This drop is notable, and the truth is, he doesn’t contribute enough in other areas to make up for his lack of physicality. In his 120 games with the Leafs, his lone goal was an empty-netter, and he’s totaled just nine points. He’s been struggling on the penalty kill and with puck movement, and his ice time has decreased by about 45 seconds per game compared to last season. He’s also taken just 36 shots on goal, down from 52 in 64 games last season.
Matthew Knies scored an impressive buzzer-beater against the Penguins, and his release stood out to me. His shooting technique has really developed since entering the league. Take his first-ever regular-season goal, which was a clean shot. He’s upright, and his wrists snap the puck into the top corner with minimal leg movement until the shot is released. Compare that to his breakaway goal against the Penguins, where he leans into his stick, creating a whippy shot with powerful leg movement to generate torque before releasing it. The shot explodes off his stick, similar to the techniques of Matthews and Nylander, who also use powerful leg kicks and whippy sticks to accelerate the puck. Knies is shooting 23.7% this year, and while it may be an unsustainable hot streak, his shot has significantly improved, and he’s effective at creating chaos in front of the net, which is a strong indicator of a potential top goal scorer.