Max Scherzer is clear about his reason for joining the Toronto Blue Jays on a one-year, $15.5M deal: he wants to win. But after an eventful offseason, it’s worth questioning whether the Blue Jays are truly in a position to achieve that goal.

Speaking to the press on Friday, Scherzer emphasized that he chose Toronto because he believes they are “all in” on winning.

However, the term “all-in” raises some questions regarding the Blue Jays. Despite actively pursuing some of the biggest free agents and trade targets this winter—such as Roki Sasaki, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso—the team fell short in those pursuits. Still, they made some notable moves, including securing Anthony Santander with a five-year, $92.5M deal and adding Scherzer and reliever Jeff Hoffman to strengthen the pitching staff. Acquiring outfielder Myles Straw and infielder Andrés Giménez could prove beneficial, though none of these additions hold the weight of a blockbuster deal the Blue Jays have long sought.

Toronto has certainly attempted to go all in, but the reality is that the Blue Jays might end up as a middle-of-the-road team in the American League East, according to preseason projections. PECOTA forecasts an 85-77 record, which would be an improvement over last year’s 74-88 finish, but still falls short of a postseason berth. Similarly, FanGraphs gives the Blue Jays an 82-80 record with just a 37.6% chance of making the playoffs, placing them at the bottom of the AL East and behind six other AL teams.

While projections are just estimates, they suggest that the Blue Jays may fall short of making a significant impact in the American League this season. This could be a tough reality for the team, especially with cornerstones Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set to become free agents at season’s end.

Scherzer will be a pivotal figure in what could be a make-or-break season for Toronto. The real question is whether the Blue Jays will do enough winning to turn this season into one to remember—or one to forget.