John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals had been open about their intention to trade veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado this offseason, as they looked to shed salary and begin a rebuild focused on younger talent. Moving Arenado appeared to be the most straightforward option. At one point, a deal with the Houston Astros seemed imminent, but Arenado blocked the trade by exercising his no-trade clause. There was speculation that St. Louis and Arenado might revisit a potential move to Houston once the free agent market developed.

However, the Astros quickly shifted gears, locking up Isaac Paredes at third base and signing free-agent first baseman Christian Walker. This development left the Cardinals focusing on two AL East rivals—the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox—as the most likely trade partners for Arenado. Yet, recent reports suggest that even these teams might not be as involved as initially expected.

According to Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic, there is a “plausible reality” that Arenado could remain with the Cardinals through the 2025 season. Trade talks have reportedly stalled since the Astros deal fell apart, and while both the Yankees and Red Sox were mentioned as potential suitors, their interest is unclear. The Yankees, in particular, are reportedly unwilling to take on much of Arenado’s contract, despite recognizing the fit he could provide on their roster. The Red Sox, while not directly linked to Arenado in the same way, are also reportedly looking to move salary, including their own contract with Masataka Yoshida.

The key issue for the Cardinals is their reluctance to eat a significant portion of Arenado’s salary. Given their primary goal of shedding payroll, this stance makes sense, but it also limits their options. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have the financial capacity to absorb Arenado’s contract, but neither seems willing to pay full price for a player whose bat is perceived to be in decline. Without a significant salary concession, it appears unlikely either team will move forward with a trade.

While things could change as the offseason progresses, especially if the Cardinals become more desperate to offload Arenado, it currently seems more probable that the third baseman will remain in St. Louis. The teams that might have been the most interested are no longer a perfect match for what the Cardinals are trying to achieve.