The future of Toronto Maple Leafs star forward Mitch Marner has been a hotly debated topic this NHL offseason. Amid numerous trade rumors since the season ended, Marner has just one season remaining on his contract before potentially becoming a free agent next offseason.

While it would make sense for the Maple Leafs to consider trading Marner rather than risk losing him for nothing, Chris Johnston of The Athletic recently suggested on the “SDPN podcast” that a trade is actually the least likely scenario. Johnston noted, “It’s probably slightly more likely he becomes a free agent than signs an extension, but not significantly so. If we were setting betting lines now, the favorite would be that he becomes a free agent, followed by re-signing, and then a trade.”

Toronto does have the option to re-sign the 27-year-old forward, who will likely command a salary increase from his current $10.9 million. The Maple Leafs will also see significant salary cap relief with John Tavares’ $11 million contract expiring in 2025, along with defenseman Jake McCabe’s $2 million salary. The team could potentially make additional moves, such as trading players like David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok, to accommodate a Marner extension.

Since his rookie year in 2016, Marner has consistently produced, scoring 60 or more points in each of his eight seasons. He has reached the 30-goal mark twice and achieved 90 points in three seasons, including two of the last three years. This season, Marner ranked third on the Maple Leafs in points with 85 and fourth in goals with 26, leading the team in scoring three times in the last five seasons.