The MLB world has been buzzing with speculation about a Toronto Blue Jays superstar’s upcoming free agency, but the Baltimore Orioles are unlikely to be serious contenders.

With no contract extension in place, it’s clear that slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is headed for free agency after this season. To gauge his market, Matt Snyder of CBS Sports ranked each team’s chances of signing him.

The Orioles weren’t at the very bottom of the list, but they weren’t far off either, landing at No. 22 in the *”would be a monster upset”* tier. This ranking largely reflects questions about ownership’s willingness to spend big, especially with Baltimore needing to prioritize extensions for its own young stars.

Guerrero is expected to command a massive contract in free agency, making an Orioles pursuit highly unlikely.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the premier young hitters in baseball. Last season, the 25-year-old slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI—an elite stat line, yet not even the best season of his career.

While adding a bat of his caliber would be enticing, first base isn’t a long-term need for Baltimore. The Orioles’ top prospect, Samuel Basallo, appears to be their future at the position.

Basallo has been a breakout star in the minors, reaching Triple-A last season. With a career slash line of .286/.364/.477 and at least 19 home runs in each of the past two seasons, he looks poised to be a key piece of Baltimore’s future.

At just 20 years old, Samuel Basallo possesses one of the most promising bats in baseball, making it unlikely that the Orioles would pursue a long-term addition at first base that could block his path to the majors.

However, there is a possibility that Baltimore could explore a short-term rental of Guerrero if the Blue Jays decide to move him at the trade deadline. While Basallo could be called up this season, there’s no urgency to rush his development.

For now, Ryan Mountcastle is expected to handle first base. While he has been a steady presence, he remains closer to a league-average player compared to Guerrero. If the Orioles find themselves in contention at the deadline, adding a bat of Guerrero’s caliber to boost their offense down the stretch could be a logical move.

Offensive struggles were a key factor in the Orioles’ downfall last season, so avoiding a repeat should be a priority.

That said, the most likely scenario is that Baltimore remains on the sidelines as the Guerrero rumors unfold over the next year.