Maple Leafs Face Tough Decision on Marner’s Future

The Toronto Maple Leafs are eager to extend Mitch Marner, but with no deal in place and a rising salary cap, his next contract is expected to be expensive. Some insiders speculate Marner’s camp may seek a deal surpassing Auston Matthews’ $13.25 million AAV, making an extension far from certain. If Toronto opts not to re-sign him, GM Brad Treliving must decide whether to explore a trade before the deadline or keep Marner for the season and risk losing him for nothing in free agency.

With the 4 Nations Face-Off providing a brief pause in the NHL schedule, trade talks and contract negotiations are expected to ramp up.

Leafs’ Backup Plan: Target Mikko Rantanen

If Marner hits free agency, one potential high-profile replacement could be Mikko Rantanen. NHL insider Elliotte Friedman reports that while the Hurricanes are expected to make a strong offer, multiple teams would be in the mix if Rantanen isn’t a long-term fit in Carolina. If the Hurricanes move Rantanen at the deadline, Toronto could have a chance to land him, either via trade or by pursuing him in free agency.

Leafs Weigh Rantanen Trade as Potential Marner Replacement

Acquiring Mikko Rantanen via trade before signing him long-term would provide a key advantage for the Maple Leafs: they could negotiate an eight-year extension instead of seven, reducing his annual cap hit. With Chicago already retaining salary and Carolina potentially doing the same in a deal, Toronto could land Rantanen at a reduced cap hit for the remainder of the season while preserving flexibility for additional deadline moves.

Rantanen is a proven star. While his playing style differs from Marner’s, he could step in and fill the gap left by his departure.

Strengthening the Blue Line: A Dobson Trade?

Instead of replacing Marner with another elite forward, the Leafs could shift their focus to upgrading their defense. One name in trade discussions is New York Islanders blueliner Noah Dobson. While it’s unclear if the Islanders are willing to part with him, Dobson’s availability could present Toronto with a valuable opportunity to solidify their back end.

Leafs Could Build Around Dobson in Potential Blockbuster Trade

At 25 years old, Noah Dobson has the potential to be a cornerstone defenseman, making him a prime target for the Maple Leafs. Toronto could aggressively pursue him by offering a package centered around Mitch Marner or high-value assets such as their 2026 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick, and prospects like Fraser Minten or Nick Robertson.

If the Islanders see value in acquiring Marner and attempting to extend him in free agency, there aren’t many bigger names they could land in a Dobson trade.

This type of deal would also shift Toronto’s cap priorities, moving money away from an expensive forward to invest in a young, elite defenseman. Dobson, currently on a $4 million deal and set to become an RFA, would bring much-needed stability to the Leafs’ blue line while creating cap flexibility for additional moves.

A larger trade package could also be in play, with the potential to include Islanders forwards like Brock Nelson or Kyle Palmieri, further reshaping Toronto’s roster.

Weighing the Risks: Dobson’s Injury and Alternative Strategies

While acquiring Noah Dobson would provide a major boost to Toronto’s defense, there are risks—most notably, his current week-to-week injury status. Committing significant assets to a player who isn’t fully healthy adds another layer of uncertainty to any potential trade.

Replacing Marner by Committee

Rather than pursuing a single star, the Maple Leafs could look to distribute Marner’s production across multiple forwards. This approach would allow them to allocate cap space more flexibly while maintaining offensive depth.

Several right-wingers could be available in free agency, including Brock Boeser, Patrick Kane, and Kyle Palmieri. While none match Marner’s individual impact, their combined production could help fill the scoring void.

• Brock Boeser (27): A proven top-six winger who could be available for around $5 million less than Marner’s projected contract.
• Patrick Kane: Still productive despite being past his prime, offering a cost-effective scoring option.
• Kyle Palmieri: A reliable goal-scorer who could add veteran depth at an affordable price.

The Leafs’ Crucial Decision

Ideally, Toronto and Marner agree to an extension, but if no deal is in place before the March 7th trade deadline, GM Brad Treliving has a tough choice. Should the Leafs pursue an elite replacement like Rantanen, shift their focus to bolstering the blue line with Dobson, or wait until the summer to sign multiple forwards? Either way, the next few weeks could significantly shape Toronto’s future.