Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Be the Next Mega-Free Agent?
If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits free agency next winter, expect a frenzy similar to what we saw with Juan Soto this offseason. While Soto set the market with his record-breaking $765 million deal, Guerrero Jr. isn’t far behind in terms of impact and talent.
At just 25 years old, Guerrero Jr. is already a four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and has twice finished in the top-6 for AL MVP. Last season, he posted a .940 OPS, a 166 OPS+, and 6.2 WAR—all elite numbers that cement him as one of baseball’s best hitters.
Can the Blue Jays Afford to Keep Him?
The Toronto Blue Jays are doing everything possible to extend Guerrero Jr. before he reaches free agency. However, it’s a complicated negotiation. Guerrero Jr. has set a self-imposed deadline at the start of spring training for an extension, meaning the clock is ticking.
The challenge? His value has skyrocketed. With Soto resetting the market, Guerrero Jr. could easily demand a contract north of $400 million. If he delivers another monster season in 2025, he may even push past $500 million in total value.
What’s Next for Toronto?
Toronto faces a tough decision—either break the bank to keep their franchise player or risk losing him to free agency. Guerrero Jr. has shown some willingness to stay, but at what price?
If no deal is reached, expect a wild bidding war next winter, with teams lining up to sign one of the game’s best young sluggers.
Are the Mets Already Out on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
The New York Mets shocked the baseball world by signing Juan Soto to a record-breaking deal, and naturally, speculation quickly followed about the possibility of adding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to form a Dominican superstar duo. Guerrero Jr. himself even congratulated Soto on Instagram, calling the deal “well deserved” with several mind-blown emojis.
But despite the obvious connection, Mets president David Stearns is pumping the brakes.
Financial Reality: Can the Mets Afford Another Mega-Deal?
While Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown no hesitation in spending, Stearns recently pointed out a harsh reality in an appearance on the Pablo Torre Finds Out podcast:
“Regardless of how deep an organization’s pockets are, you can’t do multiple of these. In terms of these generational types of contracts, you probably have one shot to shoot.”
And he’s not wrong. While MLB doesn’t have a salary cap, the competitive balance tax (CBT) does impose heavy financial penalties for high-spending teams. In 2023 alone, the Mets paid over $100 million in luxury tax penalties, and another massive contract for Guerrero Jr. (likely $400-500 million or more) would add significant tax implications.
Are the Mets Actually Too Cheap to Sign Vladdy?
It’s wild to say, but the Mets might be priced out of the Guerrero Jr. sweepstakes. Adding him to a roster already paying Soto, Francisco Lindor, and other stars would create one of the most expensive payrolls in baseball history.
Could Cohen still push forward and make it happen? Absolutely. But if Stearns’ comments hold weight, the Mets may have already taken their shot with Soto, leaving Guerrero Jr. to land elsewhere.