John Tavares Stays with the New York Islanders: An Alternate Reality

On July 1st, 2018, John Tavares shocked the hockey world by signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs, leaving his long-time team, the New York Islanders. This decision had monumental implications for both franchises. But what if Tavares had decided to stay on Long Island? How would this alternate reality have unfolded for the Islanders?

 2018 Offseason Changes

In this alternate reality, Tavares decides to stay with the Islanders after a successful negotiation with GM Lou Lamoriello. He signs an eight-year, $100 million contract, exceeding his actual deal with Toronto. With Tavares committed, the Islanders still bring in Barry Trotz as head coach and proceed with their planned draft picks, selecting Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson.

Despite Tavares’s retention, the Islanders’ limited cap space prevents them from signing a top-tier winger to pair with him. They do, however, secure Robin Lehner as their goaltender, addressing a critical need.

The 2018-19 Season

The Islanders’ actual 2018-19 season saw them finish with a 48-27-7 record, largely attributed to a strong team bond following Tavares’s departure. In this alternate timeline, with Tavares on the roster, the team likely wins a few more games, possibly clinching the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. However, their playoff journey still faces challenges.

Facing the Hurricanes in the first round, the Islanders might have won the closely contested games with Tavares’s added firepower. Yet, even if they advanced past Carolina, they would likely struggle against the Boston Bruins, who dominated the Eastern Conference Final.

 2019 and Beyond

Tavares’s presence significantly impacts the Islanders’ roster decisions in subsequent seasons. Key acquisitions like Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Kyle Palmieri in 2020 and 2021 likely wouldn’t happen due to cap constraints. Without these crucial additions, the Islanders’ deep playoff runs in those years would be less probable.

Additionally, retaining Tavares might have influenced other player movements. Anders Lee, who re-signed with the Islanders and was named captain post-Tavares, might have left for the Chicago Blackhawks. Other significant 2019 signings, such as Semyon Varlamov, Brock Nelson, and Jordan Eberle, could have been impacted by the cap space occupied by Tavares’s contract.

Goaltending Dynamics

In this scenario, the Islanders might have been more inclined to meet Robin Lehner’s contract demands, potentially retaining him instead of signing Varlamov. This decision could have affected Ilya Sorokin’s move to North America, as Varlamov’s presence was a significant factor in Sorokin’s decision to join the Islanders.

 Tavares’s Performance and Legacy

Since joining Toronto, Tavares has been a consistent performer but has not significantly outshined Anders Lee. The Leafs have only made it past the first round of the playoffs once since signing Tavares, partly due to salary cap constraints limiting their ability to make major free-agent signings or trades.

Had Tavares stayed with the Islanders, the team would likely have struggled with similar cap issues, limiting their ability to build a deep roster. While Tavares would have provided elite scoring, the overall team success would have been compromised by the inability to acquire or retain other key players.

In this alternate reality, John Tavares’s decision to stay with the Islanders would have had profound implications for the team’s future. While his presence would have undoubtedly bolstered their scoring, the high cost of his contract would have constrained the Islanders’ ability to build a competitive roster. The deep playoff runs of 2020 and 2021 would have been unlikely, and the team might have faced similar struggles as the Toronto Maple Leafs, consistently falling short of championship aspirations.