The Toronto Blue Jays were one of the four finalists for Juan Soto, who ultimately signed with the New York Mets late Sunday night. Soto’s new contract is a 15-year deal worth at least $765 million, which could reach $800 million with performance incentives. It’s hard to fault Soto for accepting such a lucrative offer, or for the other teams not going as high, given that Mets owner Steve Cohen was determined to land his guy at any cost.
For Toronto, it was always a long shot that Soto would sign with them. However, finishing as the runner-up for the top free agent in two consecutive offseasons is tough to swallow. This may lead to some changes in the near future, even if general manager Ross Atkins tries to maintain the status quo.
1. John Schneider’s Job is on the Line
While adding Soto would’ve been a significant boost to the Blue Jays’ roster, their bigger issue lies within the clubhouse. Despite entering the 2024 season as a playoff contender on paper, Toronto fell short of expectations, finishing with a disappointing 74-88 record and missing the postseason altogether. As a result, manager John Schneider’s job is under increasing scrutiny. Though the front office claims they’re still behind him, Schneider will eventually be held accountable for failing to meet the team’s goals.
While the decision not to sign Soto doesn’t directly affect Schneider’s future, having him on the roster would have made it easier for the Blue Jays to win the division and advance in the postseason. Under Schneider, the team has lost in the AL Wild Card Series in 2022 and 2023, and now, they’re on the outside looking in for 2024.
Moving forward, the Blue Jays will likely redirect some of the money they were prepared to offer Soto into strengthening their starting rotation, with names like Max Fried already on their radar. Outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander are also targets. The Blue Jays have moves to make, and Schneider will need to deliver results next season.
2. Ross Atkins is Running Out of Time
Ross Atkins has faced criticism heading into this offseason, and it’s somewhat surprising he’s still in his position. Last year, the Blue Jays were used as leverage by Shohei Ohtani, and while Soto’s free agency was handled more straightforwardly, finishing as the runner-up yet again is a tough blow.
Atkins has a significant amount of money to spend, but so far, his decisions have been questionable. Instead of building a winning team, he’s made risky moves, including prioritizing Soto over other free agents like Blake Snell and Willy Adames, both of whom Toronto might have had a better chance of acquiring.
Atkins’ future with the team will likely hinge on how he uses the money initially earmarked for Soto. The Blue Jays have been linked to free agents like Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and potential outfield additions like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Atkins needs to make these moves count if he wants to keep his job.
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Future is Uncertain
The Blue Jays would love to lock up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. long-term, but like Soto, he is due for a massive contract in the near future. There’s widespread belief among insiders and executives that Guerrero Jr. will test the market when the time comes, and his value continues to rise each year. Had Atkins been more proactive in negotiating a deal with him last winter, this uncertain situation might have been avoided.
Guerrero Jr. posted an impressive .323/.396/.544 line last season, with a .940 OPS, 30 home runs, and 6.3 WAR—numbers that would be difficult to replace. If Guerrero’s contract demands match those of Soto, the Blue Jays may have to pursue a committee approach to fill the void.
While the front office reportedly doesn’t want to trade Guerrero Jr., and believes they can eventually lock him up long-term, it remains to be seen if they can convince him to stay. A failure to invest in the right free agents this offseason could make it even harder to convince Guerrero Jr. that Toronto is a viable contender for a World Series. Right now, that’s a tough sell.