MINNEAPOLIS — The Cardinals had an opportunity to defeat a Super Bowl contender on the road, hand the Vikings a humbling loss, and stay at the top of the NFC West. The problem wasn’t that they didn’t have the chance — it’s that they didn’t fully capitalize on it.
With 3 minutes and 20 seconds left, Jonathan Gannon sent out the field goal unit to extend the Cardinals’ lead to 22-16. But this was the moment when he could have sealed the victory. Facing a fourth-and-goal at the Minnesota 4-yard line, a touchdown would have essentially locked up the game. Even if they failed, the Vikings would have needed a long drive with only one timeout.
Gannon admitted to thinking over the decision on the sideline. Ultimately, he chose to kick the field goal. “So be it,” he said in his post-game press conference after the 23-22 loss.
By giving the ball back to the Vikings, Gannon relied on a defense that had been solid most of the game. However, the defense had allowed points on the previous two drives and did so again when it mattered most.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold led a 70-yard drive in eight plays, and the Cardinals couldn’t respond in the final 1:13 of the game.
“This one hurts for sure,” Marvin Harrison Jr. said in the locker room. “We had them on the ropes. We went up by six on the last drive, but we just couldn’t get it done.”
There were several factors in the Cardinals’ collapse: penalties, missed offensive opportunities, and a defense that faltered late. However, the most glaring issue was their conservative approach in critical moments.
ESPN analytics revealed that the Cardinals made three fourth-down decisions that hurt their chances of winning. Early in the first quarter, they punted on fourth-and-2 from their own 44-yard line. Later, they settled for a field goal on fourth-and-2 from the Vikings’ 13-yard line. And, of course, the late field goal decision that reduced their win probability from 88.1% to 80.1%.
Additionally, the decision to kick an extra point after their only touchdown in the third quarter left the door open for the Vikings to regain the lead with two touchdowns — exactly what they ended up doing.
Gannon later explained that his decisions weren’t driven by analytics alone. “A lot goes into it,” he said, though he didn’t elaborate further. If it were purely analytics-driven, the Cardinals might have been more aggressive in those situations.
This conservative approach has been a season-long trend for Gannon. Of 16 fourth downs of 3 yards or fewer this season, they’ve gone for it just seven times, one of the lowest rates in the league. They’ve also been cautious in punting situations, choosing to punt all eight times on fourth-and-short in their own territory.
On Sunday, the Cardinals paid the price for their conservative choices. But it was the late field goal that hurt the most.
“I trust JG,” Kyler Murray said. “You could argue both sides — go up six and trust the defense, or go for it and possibly seal the game.” Murray also pointed out that if they had failed on the fourth down, the Vikings would have been less aggressive, possibly opting for a field goal to tie the game.
Had the Cardinals gone for it and missed, Minnesota might have been less inclined to take risks, giving the Cardinals a better chance to win.