TORONTO — Last season, the Maple Leafs dominated the NHL in five-on-five goals, outscoring every other team. Over the past four years, no team scored more at even strength, netting 25 more goals than the Colorado Avalanche and 42 more than the Florida Panthers. The Leafs’ scoring prowess made them a constant threat in the regular season.
Yet, the start of this season tells a different story, as the Leafs struggle to find the net at five-on-five. In the last five games, they’ve scored just one even-strength goal—a goal by defenseman Conor Timmins—leaving their forwards empty-handed. In nine of their first 17 games, the team has managed only one five-on-five goal or less.
Despite the absence of Auston Matthews, Toronto’s offense has been trending downward even before his injury. They rank 18th in shot attempts, 14th in shots and high-danger chances, and 16th in expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five—all down from last season. Coach Craig Berube has pushed for a balance, focusing on minimizing risky plays, but the Leafs’ offense has slowed as a result. After a disheartening loss to Ottawa, Berube pointed to William Nylander’s turnover that led to an odd-man rush and the Senators’ first goal, lamenting that the Leafs’ safer approach has come at the cost of creating fewer offensive chances.
Under former coach Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs thrived on aggressive, fast-paced play, but they now seem less explosive, struggling to mount comebacks. A shift toward conservative tactics might make them playoff-ready, but it has altered the team’s dynamic, limiting their scoring potential.
Personnel changes have also impacted depth scoring. The Leafs lost Tyler Bertuzzi and haven’t seen significant contributions from newer players. Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg, Ryan Reaves, and David Kämpf remain scoreless at five-on-five, and Nick Robertson has only one goal this season. Injuries to key players like Calle Järnkrok and Max Pacioretty further thin the lineup, while top forwards like John Tavares and Mitch Marner have seen reduced even-strength production.
As Berube emphasizes a “north-south” playstyle, questions arise about whether players like Marner and Nylander can fully thrive in this system. Time will tell if the Leafs can regain their offensive spark under the new philosophy, but with a season focused on postseason resilience, they may face challenges in recapturing the flair that once defined them.