Regarding Mitch Marner’s point projections for the 2024-25 season, it’s plausible he could hit the 100-point mark if he plays over 77 games. Historically, in the three seasons where he played more than 69 games, he accumulated 94, 97, and 99 points. With this being a contract year and the fresh influence of head coach Craig Berube, Marner has a strong chance of reaching this milestone. But how can we be confident in this prediction?

Marner has been consistently impressive in recent seasons. Since the 2019-20 season, he’s averaged 21:26 minutes of ice time per game—an excellent rate for a forward. His points per 60 minutes (P/60) have remained steady between 3.2 and 3.9 since the 2018-19 season. To score 100 points with an average of 20 minutes per game, a P/60 of 4.0 is needed.

Given Marner’s consistent performance and ice time, and no significant factors suggesting a deviation from his norms, it’s reasonable to project that he could hit 100 points. He is expected to maintain his recent ice time and continue in favorable offensive situations, including top power play assignments. Whether he’s on the first or second line, he’ll be part of an offensively strong top-six.

Last season, Marner’s top line with Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews was highly productive, with an xGoals% of 58.7% and an actual goal% of 65.7%. Even if Knies is replaced by Bobby McMann or Pontus Holmberg, it’s unlikely to significantly impact Marner’s production.

Marner did occasionally play with John Tavares, but this may not be a regular occurrence moving forward, as Tavares’ regression might negatively affect Marner’s production. On the other hand, potential chemistry with Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi could be promising, with Domi’s playmaking skills complementing Marner’s.

Great players have often stepped up when their supporting cast is missing. For instance, Henrik Sedin excelled in the 2009-10 season with Daniel Sedin sidelined, and Evgeni Malkin had an exceptional 2011-12 season in the absence of Sidney Crosby. Similarly, if Marner ends up playing with different linemates like Domi or Tavares more often, he could elevate his game and achieve or surpass the 100-point mark.