The Bucs, like all NFL teams, rely on rookie contracts to provide surplus value. Working with a hard salary cap, rookie contract surplus value is essential for teams to allocate significant funds to veteran players who have earned substantial paydays. For every Mike Evans signing, there needs to be at least one high surplus value young player to balance the roster and budget.
With that in mind, here are two offensive players for the Bucs providing surplus value based on their production since entering the league. The valuations are my own.
Bucs RB Rachaad White
– 2024 Salary Cap Number: $1,399,091
– Current Value Estimate: $9,875,000 (Based on 2024 alone)
– Surplus Value: $8,475,909
Rachaad White proved to be a workhorse last year with 336 total touches, second only to Christian McCaffrey. Volume is a significant driver in free agency, with all five of the highest-correlated metrics for running back contracts being volume statistics. Despite handling the workload of a lead back, White’s efficiency metrics were not on par with the elite players.
Nevertheless, White generated an impressive amount of yards, especially through the air, allowing him to stay on the field as an every-down back. His stable production aligns closely with Joe Mixon’s three-year average leading up to his contract extension with the Houston Texans, which was a two-year, $19.75 million deal, giving Mixon an average per year (APY) salary of $9.875 million.
This valuation is based on White’s breakout 2023 season. Considering his two-year body of work, his valuation would drop to $5.07 million, aligning again with Mixon’s 2023 contract of two years and $11.5 million for an APY of $5.75 million.
The Bucs drafted Bucky Irving in the fourth round to reduce White’s workload and made valuable additions to the offensive line to improve White’s rate/efficiency production. It will be interesting to see how these factors impact his valuation next year.
Bucs OT Luke Goedeke
– 2024 Salary Cap Number: $1,685,178
– Current Value Estimate: $15,500,000 (Based on 2024 alone)
– Surplus Value: $13,814,822
Luke Goedeke’s one-year turnaround is nothing short of a Hollywood script. Written off as a bust after a disastrous 2022 rookie campaign, Goedeke had to delete his social media due to hateful messages about his poor play. A position switch and a season later, Goedeke is now a standout for the Bucs.
His play last year included 40 pressures and a 5.83% pressure rate allowed, with run and pass block grades of 70.5 and 71.2 from Pro Football Focus, respectively. These metrics compare favorably with Charles Leno’s 2020 season, which led to a three-year, $37 million contract with Washington. Accounting for salary cap inflation, that APY jumps to $15.5 million.
I previously advocated for the Bucs to extend Goedeke early next year if he can replicate his 2023 play in 2024, suggesting a deal in the $16.5 million-$17.5 million APY range. His current $15.5 million valuation could rise if the 2025 salary cap reaches $275 million, as expected.
These two players provided over $20 million of surplus value for the Bucs last year, highlighting an increasingly impressive draft haul from 2022. Combined with early returns from last year’s rookie class, the Bucs have the makings of a talented and eventually expensive team.